Welcome back to another wrap of international news from around the world. It was an action-packed week with many movers and shakers. So let’s get started.
Biden bows out: With calls growing within his Democratic Party to end his re-election campaign, US President Joe Biden finally quit the race. Taking to X to announce his decision, Biden endorsed Kamala Harris to be the Democratic presidential nominee.Whether Harris will indeed be confirmed at the Democratic National Convention next month remains to be seen. But that’s for later. Biden said he will explain his decision in detail in the coming week – he is currently recovering from Covid. But the pressure was growing on him to take the step. His numbers were plummeting and even Barack Obama had privately expressed doubts that he could beat Donald Trump this coming November. After his disastrous performance in the presidential debate last month, the writing was on the wall. With Biden choosing to yield, the Democrats now have a fighting chance. If the party and supporters can unify, they can still best the Republicans at the polls. Plus, Kamala Harris with her Black and Indian background will also be a historic candidate. Biden, therefore, may have just given his party the best chance to keep Trump out.
Trump chooses a running mate: Emerging from surviving a failed assassination attempt, Donald Trump chose Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate at the Republican National Convention last week. Vance, a one-time critic of Trump, is now a Trump acolyte, parroting the former US president’s policy lines and talking points. He is a climate sceptic and an election denier who has refused to commit to accepting the presidential poll results. In short, Vance is a Trump mini-me. And his nomination for the post of Vice-President shows how Trumpian the Republican party has become. Add to this the fact that Vance’s wife, Usha Chilukuri, is Indian origin – the Indian-American community is the richest ethnic minority in the US. So a smart pick for Trump.
Bangladesh on boil: The Bangladeshi Supreme Court reversed a contentious quota for liberation fighters and their children yesterday, but not before anti-quota protests in Bangladesh saw at least 114 people being killed and hundreds injured. The protests began after the Bangladeshi high court on June 5 restored 30% quota in govt jobs at all levels for liberation fighter and their children and grandchildren. While the quota isn’t new, it was scrapped by the Awami League government in 2018 after similar protests.
But its reintroduction by the high court this time was seen as an Awami sleight of hand. For, large sections of Bangladeshis believe that Awami is controlling the judiciary. Plus, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had equated the protesters with razakars. But seeing the scale of the protests, Awami government also appealed against the high court ruling and now the Supreme Court has said that 93% of government jobs must be on merit. But all of this is actually symptomatic of the increasing authoritarianism of the Awami government. There is no opposition political space in Bangladesh today, which is forcing those against government policies to take to the streets. Add to this a growing unemployment crisis. If things continue on this track, Bangladesh is heading for a disaster. India must have contingency plans in place for a post-Awami situation.
Jaishankar & Kuleba talk: External affairs minister S Jaishankar and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba had a phone conversation last week with both indicating positive talks. The conversation is significant in light of the fact that it comes just days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made critical remarks about PM Modi’s recent visit to Russia and meeting with Putin. Zelensky’s comments had visibly irked New Delhi, who had called in the Ukrainian Ambassador for an explanation. Note that US Ambassador Eric Garcetti had also expressed disappointment about Modi’s visit, saying that there was no such thing as strategic autonomy in times of conflict.
There’s no denying that India is doing a balancing act over the Ukraine war. But there is also a feeling that the balance is titled towards Russia. For real balance, India ought to increase its bilateral engagement with Ukraine. In this regard, the East European Development Institute held an online seminar last week as part of its Ukraine & South Asia: Open Dialogues project. The focus of the seminar was the Indian Diaspora in Ukraine. There is a small but active community of long-term Indian residents in Ukraine. The participants in the seminar pitched for greater India-Ukraine cooperation and made specific suggestions such as a visit by PM Modi or Jaishankar to Ukraine in the near future. In terms of practical cooperation in the context of the war, it was suggested that India could supply Ukraine with small-scale power generating equipment to mitigate the impact of the Russian attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure. Therefore, in order to deepen India-Ukraine ties and achieve real strategic balance, the Indian government would do well to parley with the Indian Diaspora in Ukraine in the near future.
Vietnam top leader passes away: The general secretary of the Vietnam Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong, passed away last week due to illness. He was 80-years-old and leaves behind a huge impact on Vietnam’s polity and economic. Nguyen took over as general secretary in 2011 and also assumed the presidency between 2018 and 2021. His time at the helm of the Vietnam Communist Party was marked by rapid growth of economy that saw Vietnam emerge as one of the fastest growing economies. It was also a period when Vietnam undertook a fine balancing act between China and the US. In fact, during this time Hanoi upgraded its relations with Washington to unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, Nguyen also oversaw a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign dubbed ‘Blazing Furnace’ that brought down several government officials, including two former presidents.
The big question now is how will Nguyen’s passing away impact Vietnamese politics and foreign policy. In my opinion, there won’t be much change. Vietnam has proved itself resilient and is expected to continue with its so-called ‘bamboo diplomacy’ of maintaining flexibility between China and the US. It will also push ahead with its economic reforms to emerge as a viable alternative destination for manufacturing for foreign investors wanting to de-risk from China. The Vietnam Communist Party was prepared for a post-Nguyen scenario given the general secretary’s health issues. But the real test will be if China further ramps up its aggression in the South China Sea, directly affecting Vietnam. With India-Vietnam ties growing, this common concern will keep both New Delhi and Hanoi occupied.
Biden bows out: With calls growing within his Democratic Party to end his re-election campaign, US President Joe Biden finally quit the race. Taking to X to announce his decision, Biden endorsed Kamala Harris to be the Democratic presidential nominee.Whether Harris will indeed be confirmed at the Democratic National Convention next month remains to be seen. But that’s for later. Biden said he will explain his decision in detail in the coming week – he is currently recovering from Covid. But the pressure was growing on him to take the step. His numbers were plummeting and even Barack Obama had privately expressed doubts that he could beat Donald Trump this coming November. After his disastrous performance in the presidential debate last month, the writing was on the wall. With Biden choosing to yield, the Democrats now have a fighting chance. If the party and supporters can unify, they can still best the Republicans at the polls. Plus, Kamala Harris with her Black and Indian background will also be a historic candidate. Biden, therefore, may have just given his party the best chance to keep Trump out.
Trump chooses a running mate: Emerging from surviving a failed assassination attempt, Donald Trump chose Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate at the Republican National Convention last week. Vance, a one-time critic of Trump, is now a Trump acolyte, parroting the former US president’s policy lines and talking points. He is a climate sceptic and an election denier who has refused to commit to accepting the presidential poll results. In short, Vance is a Trump mini-me. And his nomination for the post of Vice-President shows how Trumpian the Republican party has become. Add to this the fact that Vance’s wife, Usha Chilukuri, is Indian origin – the Indian-American community is the richest ethnic minority in the US. So a smart pick for Trump.
Bangladesh on boil: The Bangladeshi Supreme Court reversed a contentious quota for liberation fighters and their children yesterday, but not before anti-quota protests in Bangladesh saw at least 114 people being killed and hundreds injured. The protests began after the Bangladeshi high court on June 5 restored 30% quota in govt jobs at all levels for liberation fighter and their children and grandchildren. While the quota isn’t new, it was scrapped by the Awami League government in 2018 after similar protests.
But its reintroduction by the high court this time was seen as an Awami sleight of hand. For, large sections of Bangladeshis believe that Awami is controlling the judiciary. Plus, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had equated the protesters with razakars. But seeing the scale of the protests, Awami government also appealed against the high court ruling and now the Supreme Court has said that 93% of government jobs must be on merit. But all of this is actually symptomatic of the increasing authoritarianism of the Awami government. There is no opposition political space in Bangladesh today, which is forcing those against government policies to take to the streets. Add to this a growing unemployment crisis. If things continue on this track, Bangladesh is heading for a disaster. India must have contingency plans in place for a post-Awami situation.
Jaishankar & Kuleba talk: External affairs minister S Jaishankar and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba had a phone conversation last week with both indicating positive talks. The conversation is significant in light of the fact that it comes just days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made critical remarks about PM Modi’s recent visit to Russia and meeting with Putin. Zelensky’s comments had visibly irked New Delhi, who had called in the Ukrainian Ambassador for an explanation. Note that US Ambassador Eric Garcetti had also expressed disappointment about Modi’s visit, saying that there was no such thing as strategic autonomy in times of conflict.
There’s no denying that India is doing a balancing act over the Ukraine war. But there is also a feeling that the balance is titled towards Russia. For real balance, India ought to increase its bilateral engagement with Ukraine. In this regard, the East European Development Institute held an online seminar last week as part of its Ukraine & South Asia: Open Dialogues project. The focus of the seminar was the Indian Diaspora in Ukraine. There is a small but active community of long-term Indian residents in Ukraine. The participants in the seminar pitched for greater India-Ukraine cooperation and made specific suggestions such as a visit by PM Modi or Jaishankar to Ukraine in the near future. In terms of practical cooperation in the context of the war, it was suggested that India could supply Ukraine with small-scale power generating equipment to mitigate the impact of the Russian attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure. Therefore, in order to deepen India-Ukraine ties and achieve real strategic balance, the Indian government would do well to parley with the Indian Diaspora in Ukraine in the near future.
Vietnam top leader passes away: The general secretary of the Vietnam Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong, passed away last week due to illness. He was 80-years-old and leaves behind a huge impact on Vietnam’s polity and economic. Nguyen took over as general secretary in 2011 and also assumed the presidency between 2018 and 2021. His time at the helm of the Vietnam Communist Party was marked by rapid growth of economy that saw Vietnam emerge as one of the fastest growing economies. It was also a period when Vietnam undertook a fine balancing act between China and the US. In fact, during this time Hanoi upgraded its relations with Washington to unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, Nguyen also oversaw a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign dubbed ‘Blazing Furnace’ that brought down several government officials, including two former presidents.
The big question now is how will Nguyen’s passing away impact Vietnamese politics and foreign policy. In my opinion, there won’t be much change. Vietnam has proved itself resilient and is expected to continue with its so-called ‘bamboo diplomacy’ of maintaining flexibility between China and the US. It will also push ahead with its economic reforms to emerge as a viable alternative destination for manufacturing for foreign investors wanting to de-risk from China. The Vietnam Communist Party was prepared for a post-Nguyen scenario given the general secretary’s health issues. But the real test will be if China further ramps up its aggression in the South China Sea, directly affecting Vietnam. With India-Vietnam ties growing, this common concern will keep both New Delhi and Hanoi occupied.
