Man City January transfer window: Golden touch is under scrutiny

BBC Sport asked Paul McDonald of FootballTransfers.com to suggest where City might find value in the January transfer market, using their ‘Estimated Transfer Value’ measurement.

The Football Transfers ETV is an algorithm using more than 600,000 historical transfers, 220,000 players and key metrics such as skill, potential, recent performance, level of competition, contract length, position, and age. It is designed as a guide of a player’s worth, rather than an inflated market value.

Forwards:

Jonathan David (ETV £28.9m)

The Lille striker could be of interest. Once valued well over £50m, he’s out of contract next summer so should be available cheaply in January. The Canada forward has four Champions League goals from his first four games, plus seven goals in Ligue 1. He can play with or without Haaland if Guardiola wanted to change style, and is a genuine goal threat – something City are seriously lacking right now with their almost total reliance on Haaland. Could they share the load?

Omar Marmoush (ETV £18.8m)

The Egyptian is scoring goals and his value has doubled since the start of the season – if he keeps this up it will double again by the season’s end. He can play across the forward line. He’s expected to leave Eintracht Frankfurt this season, but – and it is a big but – he’s 25 and this season is very much the exception in his career so far. It’s not particularly like City to target what you would call ‘flavour of the month’ signings like this, but this is also a situation they have rarely been in of late.

Liam Delap (ETV £27.5m)

The 21-year-old only signed for Ipswich from City in July on a five-year contract in a deal worth up to £20m. City are notoriously prudent at inserting clauses into sales to ensure they get sell-on value and there will definitely be a buy-back clause in the contract too, although how much it is, is difficult to say.

Normally I would suggest Delap’s sample size of six goals in 12 Premier League games would be too small for City to move to bring him back so soon, but it is a slightly more desperate situation than they are used to. He would fulfil a similar role to David, in that he would be a direct replacement for Haaland. But do City even want to replace Haaland? Do they think he can play every single game? Maybe their focus is on other areas.

Defenders:

Ousmane Diomande (ETV £7.9m)

The 20-year-old Ivorian at Sporting would add physicality, something City have been lacking recently. He’s won more than 70% of his aerial duels in Portugal. City have been shopping in Portugal in the past – Ruben Dias and Ederson – and there might be an opportunity in January now that Ruben Amorim has left. Although Sporting players always command massive fees, he has less experience at a top level, so while he will likely be more expensive than his low ETV, it could be a deal they could get done.

Pedro Porro (ETV £29.7m)

The Tottenham defender, 25, might be a left-field option at right-back. City might look to bring him back to the club after originally signing him in 2019. Porro can play possession football – he does it for Spurs – and he’s got Premier League experience. Has a fairly long deal until 2028, but his profile clearly fitted City before and he’s only gained more experience since leaving for Sporting in 2022. But Tottenham will not sell to a rival cheaply – this fee would likely be too much for City to accept for a player they let leave once before.

Midfield:

Carlos Baleba (ETV £19.7m)

The ETV of the latest Brighton midfielder off their production line is set to rise again significantly as he gains more experience at Premier League level.

The 20-year-old Cameroon player is more of a ball carrier than someone like Rodri and one of City’s issues has been his protection of the back four being missing. But if City want a presence in the middle third, given how lacklustre they have looked, he’s an option. Given Brighton’s ability to extract value plus City’s urgency, they would likely demand a fee well in excess of our current valuation. January’s not a time when deals like this happen so I’d be very surprised.

Samuele Ricci (ETV £12.8m)

The Torino and Italy midfielder could fill the Rodri void and he’s been linked with City in the past. He’s 23, he’s got decent size to him and he’s OK in possession, though he’d need to scale up massively to fit in with the Guardiola system. His contract expires in 18 months, hence his lower value. He’s also never competed in Europe nor played for Italy. Is this too much of a step up?

Martin Zubimendi (ETV £32.9m)

The most likely midfield reinforcement would probably be Real Sociedad’s Zubimendi. Liverpool triggered his £51.5m release clause in the summer only for the 25-year-old to reject the move.

He’s Rodri’s replacement for Spain. Brilliant in possession, tenacious without the ball too and would restore some balance to the City midfield.

Who to avoid?

As Manchester United have discovered in the past, being in a position in the market where you are being reactive puts you on the back foot, and potentially doing deals in January is always a breeding ground to pay too much for a wrong fit.

As the January 2024 transfer window proved – with spending down £715m compared to 12 months previously – teams are increasingly reluctant to do big business in January. So some of the lower-value players here – while they would certainly pay over the odds – might be more palatable than going big mid-season.