Japan’s politics gets a rare dose of upheaval after snap election

Japanese elections are normally steady and boring affairs – but this snap election was neither.

The dramatic vote follows a political funding corruption scandal that was revealed last year, which implicated senior lawmakers and cabinet members from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), tarnishing its image and angering the public.

It was the perfect storm – a scandal that saw dozens of LDP lawmakers investigated over pocketing millions of dollars in proceeds from political fundraisers, while households struggled with inflation, high prices, stagnant wages and a sluggish economy.

In the end, a furious and tired electorate sent a strong message in Sunday’s vote, punishing the LDP at the ballot box. And it was a stunning blow: a party which had ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955 lost its single-party majority in the powerful lower house.

But there was no clear winner either. A fractured opposition failed to emerge as a viable alternative when the public was looking for one.

Although severely bruised, the LDP still won more seats – 191 – than the biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), whose final tally stands at 148 seats.

“This election appears to be about voters who are fed up with a party and politicians they see as corrupt and dirty. But it’s not one where they want to bring about a new leader,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies.

And yet the old leadership’s fate is unclear. The LDP’s governing coalition has fallen short of the halfway mark – 233 seats in the 465-member Diet – after its ally Komeito lost several seats, including that of its chief.

Even with Komeito’s 24 seats, the LDP will be unable to muster a majority.

It’s a “severe judgment”, said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was sworn in as prime minister only early this month after winning a tight party leadership race.

Voters had “expressed their strong desire for the LDP to reflect and become a party that will act in line with the people’s will”, he said on Sunday, following exit polls.

The hope was that Ishiba as leader could save the LDP at the ballot – rising discontent and plummetting ratings had forced out the last PM, Fumio Kishida.

Still, Ishiba took a gamble when he announced a snap election less than a month ago – and it has backfired.

Both he and his party underestimated the extent of public anger and, crucially, their willingness to act on it.

To stay in power, the LDP will now need to form a coalition with other parties it fought in the election. And it will do so from a position of significant weakness because it must negotiate and make concessions to survive.

It is hard to overstate how rare this is – the LDP has always enjoyed a safe and steady place in Japanese politics.

And it has a strong track record of governance – when the opposition did take over in 1993 and 2009, it ended badly.

Since the LDP came back to power in 2012, it has managed to win every election, almost uncontested. There has long been resignation about the status quo, and the opposition remains unconvincing to the Japanese people.

“I think we [the Japanese] are very conservative,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a 66-year-old voter, told the BBC a few days before the election.

“It’s very hard for us to challenge and make a change. And when the ruling party changed once [and the opposition took over], nothing actually changed in the end, that’s why we tend to stay conservative.”

Ms Fujisaki said that she had inititially been unsure who to vote for, especially with the fundraising scandal hanging over the LDP. But given that she had always voted for them, she said she was probably going to do the same this time too.

Although the main opposition party – the CDP – made significant gains, observers say these results are less about voters endorsing the opposition than about their ire with the LDP.

Despite voters wanting to hold their politicians accountable, “in [their] minds… there really is no-one else” they trust to lead the country, Mr Hall said.

What that leaves Japan with is a weakened LDP and a splintered opposition.

The country has long been seen as a beacon of political stability, a haven for investors and a reliable US ally in an increasingly tense Asia Pacific. So the uncertainty is concerning not just for its own people, but also its neighbours and allies.

At home, a shaky coalition will not help with turning the economy around, raising wages and improving welfare for a rapidly ageing population.

And harder still will be the task of regaining the trust and respect of a public weary of politics.