Has Inflation Peaked?

This week, investors will know whether or not inflation peaked.

Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases his Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July. Economists are predicting an 8.7% year-over-year rise from a 9.1% jump in June. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to rise 0.2% in July after jumping 1.3% in June, marking the biggest monthly increase since September 2005. core inflation The rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 6.1% from a year ago, from 5.9% previously.

On Thursday, the BLS will also release its Producer Price Index (PPI) for July. The consensus estimate is for a 10.4% increase from a year ago, down from June’s 11.3% increase. The core PPI is expected to rise 7.7% from 8.2% the previous month.

In the past three months, commodity prices have fallen dramatically, which could impact inflation data. The price of corn has fallen 24% over the past three months, while wheat prices have fallen 27% and soybean prices have fallen 14%.

Oil and other energy prices also fell significantly. Light sweet crude is now down to $88 a barrel – below where it was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Detail gas price fell sharply, now approaching a national average of $4 per gallon in the United States, from a peak of over $5 per gallon in June.

“While inflation may have peaked, consumers have stretched their balance sheets significantly, according to the New York Fed. quarterly household debt report. According to the report, US household debt topped $16 trillion for the first time in the second quarter, boosted by higher balances on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. While defaults and bankruptcies remain low, more months of high prices could force consumers to rein in spending,” said Caleb Silver, editor of Investopedia.