Can Marvel’s ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ revive the box office?

Deadpool & Wolverine, the third film instalment of Marvel’s raunchy, satirical superhero franchise, debuts in theatres this weekend freighted with hopes that it will pump life into the summer box office and help the famed studio regain its mojo.

The film, starring Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, is expected to draw up to $170mn in the US box office this weekend, which could be the year’s biggest opening. If projections are correct, it would be the highest opening ever for a film with an R rating, which excludes anyone under 17 without an adult.

A strong performance for Deadpool & Wolverine would ease some pressure on Marvel and its owner, Walt Disney, where chief executive Bob Iger has urged his studio chiefs to focus on improving the quality of their films.

Pixar, another Disney studio that struggled at the box office recently, has the hit of the summer thus far with Inside Out 2, which opened at $155mn and has grossed $1.5bn since its release on June 14, setting a new global record for an animated film. The performance exceeded Disney’s 2019 juggernaut Frozen 2 — and provided relief to cinemas during an otherwise punishing year at the US box office.

The movie business limped into the summer season, with 2024 US box office receipts down nearly 30 per cent through May from year-ago levels, said Paul Dergarabedian, senior analyst at Comscore. “Everyone in the industry was pretty ‘gloom and doom’ at that point,” he said, noting the box office performance on the long US Memorial Day weekend was one of the worst in decades.

Part of the problem is a shortage of big movies. Last year’s strikes by Hollywood writers and actors shut down production for six months, forcing studios to postpone major releases, including the third instalment of the Dune franchise and Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part Two. AMC, the world’s largest cinema chain, this week blamed the strikes’ impact on the film slate for its $33mn loss in the June quarter.

While Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine are expected to give cinemas a boost this summer, Dergarabedian added “there’s no apparent blockbuster being released in August”.

American cinema owners have been praying for a return of pre-pandemic audience sizes, but box office receipts this year are down 34 per cent from the summer of 2019, according to Comscore. By the end of 2019, Disney alone had generated more than $10bn at the box office. But this year analysts project ticket sales across the US will be lucky to exceed $8bn.

Robert Fishman, an analyst at research firm MoffettNathanson, said surpassing the 2019 box office is going to be “difficult but not impossible” in future. Like others, he worries audiences have fallen out of the habit of going to the cinema since the Covid-19 outbreak, the strike disruptions and the popularity of streaming services.

“We continue to be somewhat concerned about whether the consumer appetite to go regularly to the movies has fundamentally changed,” Fishman said. “The hits continue to perform very well and even set records. But at the same time people are just going to the movies less often. You also need that [audience] frequency to return to normal.”

Such concerns come at a time of high anxiety in Hollywood. Paramount, an entertainment group with a legendary century-old studio, has just agreed to sell itself to Skydance, a 14-year-old independent studio founded by David Ellison. Warner Bros Discovery is weighing its strategic options after its market value fell by a third last year. And a recent LA Times report found employment in LA’s movie and TV business has fallen to levels last seen more than 30 years ago.

The uncertainty at the classic studios has “everybody very concerned and nervous” in Hollywood, said Steven Kram, chief executive of Content Partners.

Business has picked up in recent weeks. Despicable Me 4, Twisters and a pair of horror films — Longlegs and MaXXXine — have performed well. There are buzzy films scheduled for the autumn, including the September release of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Joker: Folie a Deux in October, Moana 2 in November and Mufasa: The Lion King at Christmas.

“The bottom line is the consumers have to show up at the box office,” Kram said. “It’s a great business if the consumer will show up.”